Wednesday, February 12, 2003
IAEA TO NORTH KOREA: You are in breach . This is, of course, a surprise to no one. However, the announcement does start the ball rolling toward the UN Security Council and potential sanctions (or worse) aimed at the DPRK. The North Koreans insist this is a bilateral U.S.-DPRK issue. The Bush administration differs:
Of course one can argue that India, Pakistan, and Israel also constitute challenges to the non-proliferation regime, challenges that don't seem to have elicited the same horror and sense of urgency that the DPRK has.
"This is something we've sought for some time," a senior administration official said on Tuesday. "What the North has done is not just a bilateral dispute with the United States, and it's not just a crisis in Northeast Asia. This is a direct challenge to the basis of the nonproliferation regime."
Of course one can argue that India, Pakistan, and Israel also constitute challenges to the non-proliferation regime, challenges that don't seem to have elicited the same horror and sense of urgency that the DPRK has.
What will the response of the DPRK be? Those who argue that this is merely Kim Jong-il's latest adventure in brinkmanship cling to the notion that, if given the proper incentives, the DPRK will back down. My sense is that the DPRK has no real incentive to back down, particularly given the Bush Administration's reluctance to offer any carrots to Kim, and every incentive to plunge full speed ahead.
