It Makes a Difference to the Sheep

BLUE RIBBON PANEL ON THE DPRK'S MISSILE CAPABILITY

As a result of these uncertainties, there is no basis for assuming that early tests of a TD-2 would be successful. Even if they were, some number of flight tests-possibly small but more than a couple-would be required to provide an estimate of the reliability of the missile. While North Korea might field a missile based on one or two tests, its confidence in its ability to use such a missile would be very low.

Knowing the reliability of a missile has important implications for the type of warhead that might be used on it. North Korea is believed to have separated enough plutonium for one or two nuclear weapons. Even if it had developed a working nuclear weapon, any leader would be reluctant to place such a valuable, scarce resource on a missile of unknown reliability, reserving it instead for other means of delivery.

A useful corrective to the somewhat overwrought "North Korea can hit the Western U.S. with nuclear-tipped missile" rhetoric that has been circulating around the net.