Saturday, March 15, 2003
I am increasingly convinced that once Saddam Hussein is dead or in hiding, the Bush Administration will train its weapons on North Korea's nuclear facilities. The mistrust and name-calling have reached such high levels that meaningful negotiations with North Korea are virtually impossible. The Bush Administration has painted itself into a rhetorical corner--how do you negotiate with someone you have called a "pygmy" and "evil"? At the same time, the White House will not just sit by and watch North Korea develop and export missiles and nuclear materials. With sanctions and blockades of questionable effectiveness, a preemptive strike looks increasingly attractive to the war hawks. Pyongyang's preference for provocative acts, like the test firing of missiles and the recent intercept of an American spy plane, will not bring the United States to the negotiating table, they will only stiffen the determination that the North poses a threat that cannot be tolerated.
If Kim Jong-il wants to avoid the fate that will soon befall Saddam Hussein, his only choice is to redirect his energies and reach out to his countrymen in the South—sooner rather than later. Despite the Korean public's profound disappointment with former President Kim Dae-jung, Roh Moo-hyun managed to win the presidency precisely because South Korean voters favor engagement over confrontation with North Korea. Ironically, at least part of the disappointment in former President Kim is the result of the North's failure to reciprocate Seoul's efforts at engagement.
President Roh presents a second chance for North Korea to undertake the reforms it has been contemplating for the past decade, achieve a meaningful and lasting rapprochement with the South, and rekindle the dreams created by the 2000 North-South Summit. Now is the time for Kim Jong-il to fulfill his promise to visit Seoul and take North-South cooperation to the next level. Or, will Kim act according to one of the most popular sayings in Washington, "The North never fails to miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity." If Kim misses this opportunity, the Korean people could be the loser. The stakes could not be higher.
