It Makes a Difference to the Sheep

BIAS INSIDE THE BELTWAY (AND OUT). Had an interesting dinner tonight with a guest speaker and several local folks. One mentioned that he has conducted an informal survey of people in the DC area and asked them whether they think it is likely that North Korea will collapse within five years. So far, his results have been very interesting. Every single Washington policy wonk has answered that they think North Korea will collapse within five years. And every single academic who focuses on Korea has answered that they think it is unlikely that North Korea will collapse within five years. I'm not sure exactly what to make of this. On the one hand I don't think that studying Korean literature or linguistics automatically makes one an astute observer of contemporary Korean politics. On the other hand, one would have to assume that years or even decades of focused study of and interaction with a certain people might lend some insights into how that people thinks and behaves, even if such insights are based on "gut instinct" rather than an overtly visible theory of international relations or political behavior. Of course those who predict the collapse of North Korea will be right . . . someday. But in the meantime, if they're not right, acting as if a North Korean collapse is imminent leads down foolish (useless light water reactors for North Korea anyone?), counterproductive, and sometimes dangerous roads.