It Makes a Difference to the Sheep

DON'T BET ON IT. PoliBlog takes me to task for my observation on handicapping the presidential race:

I would generally agree with this analysis with the caveat that anyone who assumes they can accurately handicap the big race in November needs to get a crash course in the dangers of assuming anything. If Bush the elder could lose the election when he had 90+ percentage approval ratings in January, Bush the younger certainly shouldn't feel secure with his 51% in January.

The reply?

In regards to Bush I v. Bush II: Poppy's approval rating in January of 1992 was 46% the high 80s were in early 1991. Bush the Elder did have a 50% rating in December, but the trend going into the election was downward, unlike Bush the Younger. Plus, the economy was in a downward trend as well. Hence, the Elder and the Younger entered their re-election bids in rather significantly different circumstances. I could site other examples, but I will leave it at that.

This is, of course, absolutely correct and I, therefore, stand corrected. It is a good thing I don't bet on elections, or horse races, or sports contests or . . .