Tuesday, November 02, 2004
11:00 PM, ELECTION NIGHT
No surprises yet.
--The early afternoon exit polls appear to have been dramatically wrong in at least some cases.
--Some polling data seems to point to the fact that the famed youth vote has not materialized (again). Says Daily Kos, "That's what's killing us." Still need to wait and see before saying for sure.
--Ohio looks like the crucial state. Will we ever know?
UPDATE (11:40 pm). Susan Estrich just channeled Kerry folks arguing that the urban counties and districts in Ohio have yet to weigh in. She claims Kerry will win Ohio. And, assuming Bush wins Florida, it will boil down to Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico.
UPDATE II (11:50) Some networks call Florida for Bush. Now all eyes turn to Ohio.
UPDATE III: (11:55) James Carville: "Kerry needs to draw an inside straight . . . Bush has the superior hand"
UPDATE IV: (12:40) Fox News just called Ohio for Bush. Time will tell whether this is a premature call as was the case in 2000. If you want to see just when which network called which state, see here.
UPDATE V: (1:00 am) Fox News just called Alaska for Bush. If these picks hold up, the worst Bush could do is tie. Still, given potential lawsuits etc., I'm not sure that this thing is over.
UPDATE VI: (1:30 am) Kerry staffers are gamely holding on, unwilling to concede Ohio yet. My hope now is that the Bush surge in Iowa continues and Bush wins in New Mexico and Nevada. This might make Ohio less vital to finishing this whole thing off. Nope. He would need Wisconsin as well.
UPDATE VII: (1:50 am) CNN declares Ohio to be a "green state": too close to call. Lots of talk all over the cable news networks about lawyers, provisional ballots, waiting at least ten days. Please no! Now talk of demanding recounts in Ohio and Iowa. NOOOOOOOO! I do not want to see this country go through another 2000.
UPDATE VIII: (2:25 am) John Edwards is speaking, apparently to declare that there is no way they will give up until "every vote is counted." "We will fight for every vote, you deserve no less." All well and good, but Bush is up by 125,000 votes in Ohio (with 97% of precincts reporting).
UPDATE LAST (3:04 AM) I can barely stay awake. I keep waiting for one more state to be called (Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada). Doesn't look as if we'll get any closure this morning. So au revoir for now.
--The early afternoon exit polls appear to have been dramatically wrong in at least some cases.
--Some polling data seems to point to the fact that the famed youth vote has not materialized (again). Says Daily Kos, "That's what's killing us." Still need to wait and see before saying for sure.
--Ohio looks like the crucial state. Will we ever know?
UPDATE (11:40 pm). Susan Estrich just channeled Kerry folks arguing that the urban counties and districts in Ohio have yet to weigh in. She claims Kerry will win Ohio. And, assuming Bush wins Florida, it will boil down to Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico.
UPDATE II (11:50) Some networks call Florida for Bush. Now all eyes turn to Ohio.
UPDATE III: (11:55) James Carville: "Kerry needs to draw an inside straight . . . Bush has the superior hand"
UPDATE IV: (12:40) Fox News just called Ohio for Bush. Time will tell whether this is a premature call as was the case in 2000. If you want to see just when which network called which state, see here.
UPDATE V: (1:00 am) Fox News just called Alaska for Bush. If these picks hold up, the worst Bush could do is tie. Still, given potential lawsuits etc., I'm not sure that this thing is over.
UPDATE VI: (1:30 am) Kerry staffers are gamely holding on, unwilling to concede Ohio yet. My hope now is that the Bush surge in Iowa continues and Bush wins in New Mexico and Nevada. This might make Ohio less vital to finishing this whole thing off. Nope. He would need Wisconsin as well.
UPDATE VII: (1:50 am) CNN declares Ohio to be a "green state": too close to call. Lots of talk all over the cable news networks about lawyers, provisional ballots, waiting at least ten days. Please no! Now talk of demanding recounts in Ohio and Iowa. NOOOOOOOO! I do not want to see this country go through another 2000.
UPDATE VIII: (2:25 am) John Edwards is speaking, apparently to declare that there is no way they will give up until "every vote is counted." "We will fight for every vote, you deserve no less." All well and good, but Bush is up by 125,000 votes in Ohio (with 97% of precincts reporting).
UPDATE LAST (3:04 AM) I can barely stay awake. I keep waiting for one more state to be called (Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada). Doesn't look as if we'll get any closure this morning. So au revoir for now.
